Which of these could be the black swan which will take place in 2011 ???????????
Never say never. Even in 2011 will be essential to obtain the helmet to avoid being overwhelmed by the lists in a storm. The year that will inherit the crisis of sovereign debt. But promises surprises. The settlement in the role of President of the EU the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, supports the idea of \u200b\u200bEurobonds, could have unforeseen implications in the face of no Franco-German. The year 2011 will inherit the slow economic recovery overseas. In this scenario, Saxo Bank, and investment bank specializing in online trading, has outlined his "weather shock" for next year which will also highlight currencies that could surprise positively and those that could touch all-time low. 
Among the "blacks swans" including one that would go down in history as one of the largest and most controversial acquisition, the political battle against the authority of the Federal Reserve, a prediction about the price of commodities and on the strategies' investment to consider. Last year, three estimates of Saxo Bank are reflected in reality. Styles within dell'Outlook Financial Bank in 2011 to be published next January, the new ten prophecies about hypothetical scenarios, rare events, but still possible, potentially high-impact markets.
1. The U.S. Congress rejected the QE3 Bernanke. In the second half of 2011, the Federal Reserve will be in a very difficult position for being the main culprit of the real estate fiasco, the subsequent rescue of the banks and the catastrophic situation facing the public debt. At the same time, the so-called banks "too big to fall" would again be in serious trouble. The U.S. Congress will block the authority of the Fed on the budgets and the challenge on his dual mandate as regards the employment data and inflation.
2. Apple buys Facebook. Through interviews Steve Jobs, Apple's founder, said that among his company and the popular social network, there may be opportunities for partnership, but that recent meetings have not yet led to anything concrete. The vertices of Apple have indicated that Facebook was looking for economic conditions that could not be accepted. The situation could lead to Jobs to decide for the full acquisition of Facebook.
3. U.S. Dollar Index will exceed quota 100. The curve of economic growth will be for a while 'positive in some areas of the world, but it turned out problems for China. The slow growth of China's industrial sector will lead to a collapse in global risk appetite. Together with the Japanese economy struggling for survival and the Eurozone in disarray, the U.S. dollar will start to be more interesting. The disentangling of these positions will push the U.S. Dollar Index up 25% to over 100 share at the end of the third quarter of 2011.
4. The 30-year bond yield of U.S. Treasury will slip 3%. The policy of devaluation of the dollar, which has its roots in the so-called "war of currencies" of 2010, emerging markets will force to use more dollars on the basis of government bonds. The efforts of the quantitative easing by the Fed will be rendered meaningless situation of the balance sheets of American banks. The ECB, the European Union and the Fund International Monetary fail in their battle to heal the ills of peripheral PIIGS directing the herd of confused investors towards the safe haven of Uncle Sam. The positive sentiment will disappear in 2011 and bond yields to 30-year U.S. Treasury will drop to 3%.
5. The dollar australiano © \\ sterling plummet by 25%. The year 2011 will mark the return of Britain to its traditional values: the British work more, save more and, surprisingly, in 2011 it set in motion a rapid expansion. The Australia on the other hand, will fight with the economy weakening, while China will always harder to stop inflation before the situation gets out of hand. Together with the Australian property market, the situation looks like a bubble ready to burst and the facts lead to a decline in the AUD / GBP 25%.
6. Oil down to third. The crude, now led by macroeconomic © \\ basic expectations of investors, will be dragged on, passing the $ 100 a barrel in early 2011, thanks to the wave of euphoria caused by the American economy finally free from the chains. Crude succumb to a violent correction of a third later in 2011.
7. The natural gas will increase by 50%. The gas naturally come in 2011 with a surplus of supply, since the global downturn had already led to a surplus of demand over the past two years, resulting in a two-year double-digit losses. But the increased industrial demand, the historic low price of crude oil and coal, a progress curve flattening and proposals to export more gas from fields in the U.S., are all situations that come together to make passive investments in gas increase in value. In addition, a sudden cold wave will lead to a rapid depletion of stocks, so as to cause an increase of 50% who had never registered in the last 25 years.
8. The gold will boost up to $ 1800 while there will be an escalation in the war of currencies. The so-called "war of currencies" will return to the bitter end in 2011, driven by improvements in the American economy. The U.S. current account deficit will widen and China will be put under pressure. While investors flee from the metals, gold s'impennerà up to $ 1,800 per ounce.
9. The S & P 500 will touch the highest peak in history. The Fed in 2011 will continue to provide liquidity to the system. Investors realize that the only good strategy to follow would be to buy on the downside, even if the tactic works for the Fed even though it is a castle Card and American consumers start to spend when their stock portfolio improves. But corporate America does not believe the euphoria that is based on the theorem that a good stock price necessarily mean good health and will continue operations in de-leveraging as a function of a healthy recovery. The benchmark index of the U.S. will see the peak of 2007 in the rearview mirror and will run its course to share 1.600.
10. The Russian RTS index reached 2500. The next bubble in the global economy will begin to swell at the beginning of the year, sending crude oil above $ 100 a barrel. The average American investor will do nothing for their money, if not buying falls on the U.S. stock market. Those that invest in the Russian market will realize the value P / E of 8.6 years and a P / B of 1.26. The RTS will almost double to 2.500 in 2011.
